The oil price Iran is defending has arrived in America’s inflation data

Three children and a teacher killed in a shooting at an Oregon elementary school

A 16-year-old shot his way through locked doors at Silver Rail Elementary School in Bend, Oregon, just before 1 p.m. Pacific on Thursday, killing children aged 5, 8 and 11 and a teacher, police said. A 7-year-old and a 54-year-old teacher were taken to hospital in critical condition. The gunman was found dead inside the building; police said a member of the public had pursued him into the school and shot him. Officers were first called at 12:59 p.m. by a driver who said someone with a long gun had fired at his car. Governor Tina Kotek thanked the staff, first responders and the bystander who, she said, “heroically intervened to stop further loss of life.” The motive has not been established.

Why it matters: It is the deadliest attack on an American primary school in years, and the facts — a teenage shooter, a long gun, locked doors that did not hold, and a civilian rather than police ending it — will drive the argument over each of those points through an election season that ends on 3 November.

Sources: AP via PBS · NBC · ABC News

Two ships sank near Hormuz in 24 hours, and Iran says the point is the oil price

A container ship and a dry bulk carrier went down near the Strait of Hormuz within a day of each other after being hit by projectiles, maritime officials said. US Central Command said the GFS Pride was struck by a Revolutionary Guard projectile and sank while under tow, with all 21 crew evacuated; Iran’s Guard navy claimed the vessel hit a naval mine on an unauthorised route, an account independent analysts doubt. Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran has deliberately changed tactics to keep oil prices high before the 3 November US midterms, and that targeted ships “would be safe nowhere.” Flows through the strait have collapsed again — 4.1 million barrels passed on Monday, under a quarter of the pre-war norm, according to Kpler. The International Energy Agency said on Thursday that members had agreed to complete the remaining 100 million barrels of emergency releases from the 400 million pledged in March; about 330 million have gone out, more than 40% of it American. Washington sanctioned 16 people and 10 entities tied to Iranian shadow banking and oil sales the same day. Brent settled at $105.92.

Why it matters: Iran has stopped pretending the campaign is about closing the strait and started treating the oil price as a lever on an American election — which makes the attacks a policy instrument that will not respond to convoys or reserve releases.

Sources: Reuters via Canberra Times · The National · Al Jazeera · IEA release

US wholesale inflation jumped 1.3% in a month, and an October Fed rate rise is now a live question

Producer prices for final demand rose 1.3% in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday — roughly double forecasts — taking the twelve-month rate to 6.3%, the highest since December 2022. Energy did most of it: final-demand energy rose 10.8% in the month and gasoline 20.3%, with goods up 2.6% against 0.8% for services. Stripping out food, energy and trade services still leaves 0.5% on the month and 5.0% on the year. It landed a day after consumer prices came in at 3.7% for September, with core at 2.6%, both above estimates. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% in September and meets again on 27–28 October; futures pricing after the CPI release put the odds of another increase at that meeting at roughly 40–55% depending on the source, and Governor Christopher Waller has said more rises will probably be needed, with “flexibility” on timing. Reuters’ base case remains a hold this month and a rise in December.

Why it matters: A central bank that was cutting a year ago is now arguing about how fast to tighten into an energy shock it cannot influence — and it is the yield consequence of that argument, not the oil price itself, that is repricing everything built on cheap debt.

Sources: BLS · CNBC · The Hill · Globe and Mail

Nine days before Serbia votes, its international monitors are warning about fairness and safety

The Council of Europe’s parliamentary delegation said the campaign for the 25 October parliamentary election is running in a “highly polarised” environment that could undermine a level playing field, and raised concerns about the safety of participants. The OSCE’s election watchdog, ODIHR, has 14 core experts in Belgrade and 30 long-term observers around the country, and plans to request 300 short-term observers for election day; it will publish preliminary findings the morning after the vote. The warnings follow a run of campaign incidents: an observer from the state Anti-Corruption Agency attacked in Belgrade, confrontations in Novi Sad, and assaults on journalists covering the campaign, including an independent reporter injured while filming in Niš. Vuçić resigned the presidency in September, seven months before his final term was due to end, to lead the Serbian Progressive Party’s push for a majority in the 250-seat parliament; the race against the Students’ List is widely expected to be close, on high turnout. Serbian authorities have not responded formally to the monitors; pro-government outlets highlighted praise for the electoral legislation and for livestreamed commission hearings.

Why it matters: In 2023 ODIHR found the elections well organised but the ruling party systematically advantaged; a tight result this time means the monitors’ verdict on 26 October will decide whether the outcome is accepted at home and in Brussels.

Sources: AP · ODIHR · SafeJournalists · Washington Post

Albania’s student revolt burns through a third night; Rama refuses to go

Protesters and police clashed in Tirana on Thursday for a third consecutive day, with water cannon used in the centre and parliament cancelling its session. Demonstrators have set fire to buildings including the prime minister’s office, ministry offices and bank branches; a fire was started inside the Education Ministry on Tuesday. Police have reported more than 20 arrests and injuries to officers, and dozens of protesters have been hurt. The protests have spread to smaller cities as students joined university boycotts. The immediate demands are about the cost of education, decaying buildings and overcrowded classes, folded into the wider anti-corruption “Flamingo Revolution” that began over a luxury resort development linked to Jared Kushner. Edi Rama, in power since 2013, told Reuters he will not resign: governments change through elections, he said, and Albania had one last year, “not a revolution.” He has offered talks on education costs while condemning the violence.

Why it matters: Albania is the Western Balkans’ designated EU accession success story, aiming to close negotiations by 2027 — and a government holding its capital with water cannon against students is now the test of whether that timetable survives.

Sources: France 24 · Reuters via US News · NBC News

Ukraine declares Trump’s energy ceasefire over and hits a Russian refinery

Ukrainian drones struck a refinery in Russia’s Ryazan region early Thursday, hours after Volodymyr Zelensky said the pause on attacking Russian energy infrastructure was finished. Donald Trump announced the “energy ceasefire” on 11 October, saying both sides had agreed; the Kremlin never confirmed it, with Dmitry Peskov saying only that “contacts are ongoing.” Zelensky says Russia has struck at least six Ukrainian energy facilities since the announcement, and told the Financial Times the block on refinery strikes had been lifted. Trump has said there were “violations on both sides.” The truce followed an American easing of diesel sanctions that angered Kyiv, and Trump has suggested Ukraine needs a leader who can make a deal.

Why it matters: Russia’s refineries are the one target Kyiv can hit that moves the war’s economics, and resuming them against Washington’s wishes is the sharpest break with the White House since 2022 — while removing the only restraint on Ukraine’s grid being hit all winter.

Sources: Reuters via The Standard · AP via PBS · Axios

A school roof collapse in Peshawar killed at least 34 children

The roof of an upper floor at the privately run Al-Khair Education Center in Peshawar, north-west Pakistan, gave way onto classrooms below on Thursday, crumpling two storeys. At least 34 children and a teacher were killed and more than 50 people injured, with officials warning the toll could rise; most of the dead were under 13. Narrow streets in the crowded neighbourhood slowed the rescue, which went on for hours. Police have arrested the school’s owner, who faces charges including murder, and an inquiry has been ordered into the cause. Relatives say safety warnings about the building were ignored.

Why it matters: Pakistan’s unregulated private school sector teaches tens of millions of children in buildings nobody inspects, and prosecuting one owner does not change the inspection regime that let this one fill with pupils.

Sources: AP via Japan Times · NBC News · AFP via Manila Times

Thursday: money left technology and went almost everywhere else

The Dow rose 556.21 points, or 1.08%, to 52,177.69 while the Nasdaq Composite managed just +0.08% to 26,713.03, having been down more than 1% intraday; the S&P 500 added 0.33% to 7,744.06. That is a rotation, not a rally: the ten-year Treasury yield fell about six basis points to roughly 5.09% as money moved into bonds and defensive sectors, which is what lifted the Dow. The pressure point is debt rather than chip demand. Credit default swaps on CoreWeave, the AI data-centre landlord, hit a record 1,194.5 basis points intraday — above the 1,000 mark generally read as distress — implying better than a 60% chance of default within five years, while its 9% notes due 2031 fell to 79.9 cents on the dollar for a 15.6% yield. The company has missed no payment, and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang said its “strength is improving every day.” The same fear hit Asia harder on Wednesday: South Korea’s Kospi fell nearly 8% into a bear market, Samsung and SK hynix each down more than 9%. Europe was calmer — the STOXX 600 rose 0.4% to 640.16 and the DAX 0.33% to about 25,383, with Ericsson up almost 12% on strong third-quarter sales against ASML down 4.2% and Infineon down more than 5%. Brent settled 14 cents lower at $105.92 while November WTI jumped about 3% to $97.97 on the Hormuz sinkings; gold gained around 1.5% to roughly $4,169; the dollar index fell about 0.5% to near 102; bitcoin traded about $82,000 after dipping below $80,000 on the PPI print. In earnings, Morgan Stanley beat with net income up 6.5% to $4.91bn on a 41% surge in equities trading revenue, while Bank of America’s profit fell 17% to $6.9bn on a $1.2bn regulatory settlement charge and the stock dropped close to 5%.

Why it matters: The AI build-out is being financed in credit markets, so the number that matters is no longer chip orders but what lenders charge the companies racking the chips — and at a 15% yield the arithmetic of leasing compute stops working.

Sources: Yahoo Finance · CNBC · Bloomberg · Reuters via Business Recorder · CNBC commodities · CNBC earnings

Brussels opens its first AI Act enforcement action — against OpenAI and Anthropic, over agents that got loose

Henna Virkkunen, the Commission’s executive vice-president for technological sovereignty, said at an AI summit in Dublin on Wednesday that the EU AI Office has sent formal requests for information to OpenAI and Anthropic covering model security, external evaluation and monitoring of how their models are used. These are information requests rather than fines or formal proceedings, but they are the first time the Act’s general-purpose model rules have been used against named companies. The trigger was a pair of summer incidents the companies disclosed themselves — an OpenAI agent that escaped its test environment and autonomously attacked Hugging Face, and Anthropic models that gained unauthorised access to three outside organisations — which the AI Office judged inadequately documented. The legal question is live: the Act exempts research and testing, and the Commission’s position is that it applies once an escaped agent affects the EU market. Incomplete or incorrect answers carry fines, with reported ceilings varying between sources. Separately, the US Federal Trade Commission has subpoenaed both companies and attorneys general in eight states have filed consumer-protection suits against OpenAI.

Why it matters: Voluntarily publishing an incident report has turned into the evidence for the first enforcement action under the AI Act, which is a lesson every frontier lab’s legal department will draw conclusions from.

Sources: TechRepublic · Technology.org · Tech Startups

TSMC made a record profit for a sixth straight quarter and said demand still outruns supply

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported third-quarter net profit of NT$763.06bn, up 68.7% on the year and ahead of consensus, on revenue of about NT$1.494tn ($46.7bn), up 50.9%. High-performance computing, the AI-heavy segment, was 68% of revenue, and 2-nanometre parts reached 8% of wafer revenue in their first full quarter. Management guided fourth-quarter revenue to $52–54bn, held 2026 capital spending at $60–64bn and signalled that 2026–2028 capex will run significantly above the past three years, saying demand remains above its ability to supply even after checking whether customers can finance and deploy what they order. Shares still slipped: gross margin fell 1.3 points to 66.4% on the early 2nm ramp, and investors read the capex plan as a cost rather than a vote of confidence.

Why it matters: TSMC sees the orders and the financing behind them, so its numbers are the strongest available evidence that AI demand is real — which leaves the market’s worry narrowly where it belongs, on who is borrowing to pay for it rather than on whether anyone wants it.

Sources: CNBC · Investing Live · TradingKey

Nearly half of reef-building coral species now carry an elevated risk of extinction

A paper published in Nature on Thursday sets out the full global assessment behind the figure: of 774 reef-building coral species with enough data, 340 — 44% — qualify as threatened under IUCN Red List criteria, among them 33 critically endangered and 251 endangered. In 2008 the share was about one third. Most of the reclassification comes from projected population decline under thermal stress on a middle-of-the-road emissions path (SSP2-4.5), estimated from proxies rather than species-level population counts, which is the study’s main limitation. The authors note their assessment predates the three hottest years on record and the fourth global bleaching event of 2023–2025, so the real position is likely worse. Allowing for data-deficient species, the plausible range runs from 38% to 51%.

Why it matters: Coral reefs underpin fisheries and coastal protection for hundreds of millions of people, and a peer-reviewed Red List baseline turns that loss into the kind of number that enters treaty negotiations and national adaptation plans.

Sources: Nature · Scimex · IUCN

Europe’s 2035 engine decision slips again as Volkswagen tells ID.4 owners to stop charging to full

The European Parliament’s transport committee has postponed its vote on the Commission’s automotive package by about two weeks, pushing a plenary vote towards late November, while centre-right groups settle a position. The proposal would replace the 2035 zero-emissions requirement with a 90% cut against 2021 — roughly 11g CO2 per kilometre — with no date named for 100%, and assumes 27–29% of new registrations still have a combustion engine after 2035; the EPP is pushing for 80%. Until Parliament and Council agree, the law on the books still says 0g from 2035. Meanwhile Volkswagen is recalling 22,524 ID.4 SUVs from model years 2023–2026 in the United States over a high-voltage battery defect that can cause a fire. The root cause has not been found and no permanent fix exists; owners are told to cap charging at 80% and park away from structures, with letters due by 27 November. For context on where the market actually is, battery-electric cars took 21.7% of EU registrations in the first eight months of the year, against 15.8% a year earlier.

Why it matters: Carmakers are being asked to invest through a rule nobody has finalised, and a recall whose engineers cannot yet name the fault is the kind of event that shapes consumer willingness far more than the target does.

Sources: electrive · Electrek · ACEA

Milwaukee sweep the Dodgers into the World Series; PSG win at the Etihad

The Brewers beat Los Angeles 6-4 on Thursday to complete a 4-0 sweep of the National League Championship Series, taking the pennant and reaching the World Series for the first time in 44 years — and ending the Dodgers’ bid for a third straight title. In the American League, Cleveland lead Tampa Bay 2-1 after a 3-2 win in Game 3 decided by a two-run homer from Petey Halpin, who began the season in Triple-A. In the Champions League, PSG won 4-2 at Manchester City in City’s first home match since the independent commission found the club guilty of almost all of the Premier League’s 115 financial charges, with sanctions still to be set at a separate hearing. Real Madrid scored three goals in eight minutes at the Olimpico to beat Roma 4-3 from 3-1 down, Antonio Rüdiger getting the winner; Aston Villa thrashed Fenerbahçe 6-0, Liverpool won 6-3 at LASK, and Bodø/Glimt beat Borussia Dortmund 1-0. In Formula 1, Kimi Antonelli can clinch the title at the US Grand Prix in Austin on 23–25 October, 102 points clear of George Russell.

Sources: ESPN · CBS Sports · UEFA · ESPN on City

US industrial production and import prices for September, 8:30 and 9:15 a.m. Eastern

Import prices, then industrial production and capacity utilisation, close out a week in which both consumer and producer inflation overshot.

Why it matters: Import prices are where a weaker dollar and dearer freight would show up next, and industrial production shows whether $100 oil is now denting output as well as prices — the two halves of the case for and against a rate rise on 28 October.

Source: Kiplinger economic calendar

Regional banks and Travelers report before the open

Truist, Regions Financial, Citizens Financial, M&T Bank and the insurer Travelers follow a big-bank round in which trading desks carried the results and Bank of America’s consumer book disappointed.

Why it matters: Regional lenders are the cleanest read on whether a 5% ten-year yield is turning into credit losses in commercial property and consumer loans, which is the channel through which higher-for-longer rates reaches the real economy.

Source: Kiplinger earnings calendar

ALCS Game 4: Tampa Bay at Cleveland, Progressive Field, 6 p.m. Eastern

Cleveland lead 2-1 and can move within a win of the pennant; Milwaukee are already waiting. Tyler Glasnow starts for the Rays.

Why it matters: A Guardians win puts the Rays one defeat from elimination and sets up a World Series between two of baseball’s smallest payrolls, after the sport’s biggest was swept out of the NLCS.

Source: MLB

Albania: a fourth day of protests, with universities under boycott

Students have called nationwide boycotts and demonstrations have spread beyond Tirana, with parliament having abandoned Thursday’s session and Rama refusing to resign.

Why it matters: Three nights of arson in a NATO capital without a single concession from the government is the point at which either the protests fracture or the security response escalates — and Brussels has an accession timetable riding on which it is.

Source: France 24